A couple of weeks ago, when we looked at how the economy was doing, we saw signs of recovery that did not seem to have penetrated to the level of the small business economy. That state of being persists, according to a new set of numbers released over the last couple of weeks by almost everybody. The Conference Board’s economic indicators appear to have hit bottom and are climbing steadily, although the coincident indicators’ behavior signifies a slow, protracted recovery. Meanwhile, both GDP growth and job growth seem to have resumed, retail sales numbers are improving, the housing and construction sectors appear to be recovering, inflation is contained and personal incomes continue to rise (although not dramatically). But none of that seems to be making people feel any better. Consumer confidence experienced a six-point spike, according to The Conference Board, but the consumer confidence index had gotten so very low that said spike doesn’t really go very far.

Overall, consumer confidence levels have not changed significantly since last spring and those flat consumer confidence levels are the real problem. Without much demand for products or services, businesses have no reason to make inventory purchases or invest in capital improvements or return to hiring. In some ways, it’s a bit of a vicious cycle. The National Federation of Independent Business’s monthly Index of Small Business Optimism fell last month. According to the NFIB, the lengthy persistence of readings below 90 is “unprecedented” in the history of this survey. The fact is that no amount of fiddling with the tax code or pressuring lenders to make loans to small businesses is going to make up for the fact that people simply are not buying and the one major customer that still is buying — that is, the U.S. government — makes it so difficult to do business with them that most business owners don’t want to bother. It looks like things will be gloomy on Main Street for awhile longer yet.